Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 18.02 per cent in September 2025, down from 20.12 per cent in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline and the first time in three years that inflation has fallen below the 20 per cent mark.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed this in its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Wednesday. The agency attributed the steady moderation to the rebasing of the CPI, which has contributed to the first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in several years.
According to the report, September’s headline inflation rate decreased by 2.1 per cent from the previous month. Year-on-year, the rate was 14.68 per cent lower than the 32.70 per cent recorded in September 2024.
“On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate for September 2025 stood at 0.72 per cent, slightly lower than 0.74 per cent recorded in August. This indicates a slower increase in average price levels,” the NBS stated.
Food Inflation
Food inflation declined sharply to 16.87 per cent year-on-year, 20.9 percentage points lower than 37.77 per cent in September 2024. NBS explained that the significant drop was partly due to the change in the base year of calculation.
Month-on-month, food inflation fell by 1.57 per cent, compared to 1.65 per cent in August — driven by falling prices of maize, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
Core Inflation
Core inflation (all items excluding farm produce and energy) stood at 19.53 per cent in September, down from 27.43 per cent a year earlier. On a month-on-month basis, it recorded a slight dip to 1.42 per cent, from 1.43 per cent in August.
The average 12-month annual inflation rate was 22.39 per cent for the period ending September 2025 — 3.25 percentage points lower than 25.64 per cent in September 2024.
Urban and Rural Breakdown
Urban inflation rose slightly month-on-month by 0.25 per cent to 0.74 per cent, while the year-on-year rate dropped to 17.50 per cent, 17.63 percentage points lower than a year earlier.
Rural inflation fell both year-on-year and month-on-month to 18.26 per cent and 0.67 per cent, respectively.
At the state level, Adamawa (23.69%), Katsina (23.53%), and Nasarawa (22.29%) recorded the highest headline inflation rates year-on-year, while Anambra (9.28%), Niger (11.79%), and Bauchi (12.36%) posted the lowest.
For food inflation, Ekiti (28.68%), Rivers (24.18%), and Nasarawa (22.74%) led the states with the highest annual increases, while Bauchi (2.81%), Niger (8.38%), and Anambra (8.41%) recorded the lowest.
Analysts’ Reactions
Ahead of the data release, Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, projected inflation to ease to 18.8 per cent, citing “a combination of softer food prices and a strengthening naira” as key drivers.
Analysts at Arthur Steven Asset Management echoed similar sentiments, saying the continued disinflation trend strengthens the case for another rate cut by the CBN at its November meeting.
In its Inflation Watch report, AIICO Capital noted that the moderation reflects the impact of policy reforms and the recent CPI rebasing.
“The naira appreciated by 2.9 per cent in September, its strongest level in 15 months,” AIICO said. “With inflation now nearing the 15 per cent budget benchmark, further rate cuts are likely, though sustained price stability will require consistent policy discipline, stronger food security, and stable energy prices.”
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