Billionaire philanthropist and clean energy advocate Bill Gates has sparked global debate after publishing a new essay arguing that climate change, while serious, will not lead to humanity’s extinction. Instead, he urged governments and donors to redirect more resources toward combating disease and hunger in the world’s poorest regions.
In the essay, released Tuesday, October 28, ahead of next month’s COP30 summit, Gates described his position as a “strategic pivot.” He argued that the world’s heavy focus on achieving near-term net-zero carbon emissions has diverted critical funding from initiatives that could save millions of lives today.
“Climate change, disease, and poverty are all major problems,” Gates wrote. “We should address them in proportion to the suffering they cause.”
Expanding on this in an interview, Gates offered a striking comparison: “If I had to choose between eradicating malaria and preventing a one-tenth of a degree temperature rise, I’d let the temperature go up 0.1 degrees to get rid of malaria.”
Gates partly attributed his new emphasis to reductions in global aid, citing former U.S. President Donald Trump’s cuts to USAID funding, which previously provided around $8 billion annually for food and medical assistance. He argued that this shortfall has created an immediate humanitarian crisis that outweighs long-term climate risks.
“Health and prosperity are the best defense against climate change,” Gates added, referencing research from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab, which suggests that wealthier and healthier societies are better equipped to withstand environmental challenges.
The shift marks a notable departure from Gates’s earlier climate advocacy, drawing both praise and criticism. While Gates insists he still supports investments in zero-carbon technology, critics accuse him of creating a “false choice” between addressing emissions and alleviating poverty.
Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, countered that the suffering Gates seeks to prevent is often caused or exacerbated by climate change. “We need to cure the disease—emissions—while also treating the symptoms like hunger and poor health,” she said.
Similarly, climate scientist Michael Mann, Director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media, argued, “There is no greater threat to developing nations than the climate crisis. He’s got this all backwards.”
Gates concluded his essay by calling on philanthropists, policymakers, and global institutions to fund initiatives with the greatest measurable impact on human welfare, rather than focusing narrowly on carbon targets.
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