More than 65 million Nigerians were pushed into poverty in 2024 following a 66% decline in the country’s GDP per capita, according to a new report by Quartus Economics.
The report, titled “Forty Years of Structural Adjustment: Is Africa’s Eagle Stuck or Soaring Back to Life?”, reviews Nigeria’s economic performance since the introduction of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 — a policy designed to reduce government control and promote a market-driven economy.
Quartus noted that while Nigeria’s GDP expanded from $87.5 billion in 1990 to $252 billion in 2024, the economy’s structure remained fragile, with the naira losing 99.7% of its value during the same period.
The study highlighted that early reforms — such as liberalisation, privatisation, and banking sector changes — initially stimulated private investment and industrial growth. However, inconsistent policies and poor implementation later undermined these gains.
“Policy inconsistencies and weak execution created cycles of mixed outcomes and missed opportunities,” the report stated. “As a result, inclusive and export-driven growth has remained elusive, while the gap between population growth and productivity has widened significantly.”
By 2024, Nigeria’s per capita GDP had dropped by two-thirds from its 2014 peak, deepening poverty and revealing the economy’s vulnerability.
Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria endured its worst economic slowdown in decades, driven by falling oil prices, population pressures, restrictive fiscal and monetary policies, and governance shortcomings. Inflation surged above 30%, foreign investments dwindled, and economic stagnation persisted.
However, the report praised the 2023–2024 economic reforms, including the removal of petrol and foreign exchange subsidies, describing them as “decisive steps” that began to correct long-standing structural imbalances.
While these policies initially worsened inflation, Quartus noted they helped restore fiscal stability and investor confidence. By late 2024, GDP growth rebounded to nearly 4%, with renewed activity in manufacturing and mining, and economic expansion once again outpacing population growth.
By October 2025, Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose to $42 billion, and inflation began to ease, signaling what the firm called “a slow but genuine restoration of confidence.”
Despite these gains, the report cautioned that “the scars of Nigeria’s lost decade remain.” Per capita income is still well below pre-crisis levels, and the country’s export base and governance structures remain weak.
Quartus concluded that for Nigeria to achieve lasting transformation, it must move beyond short-term stabilization toward deep structural reforms that prioritize productivity, innovation, and good governance.
“At the moment, Nigeria — the African eagle — is unstuck, but it has yet to soar,” the report stated. “Recovery is real, but enduring progress will depend on discipline, policy continuity, and collective commitment to reform.”
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